We are in the second half of the season, and it’s at this point where so many theories, permutations and calculations about who can go all the way.
For Chelsea, the time to start looking forward to title is here, and former Chelsea player Pat Nevin has done his calculations on why he thinks Chelsea can go all the way.
In his column for the official Chelsea website, he wrote: I started with a quick look at the number of points that it takes to win the Premier League. Leicester did it last season with 81 points, so with a current haul of 49 points to our name; we would only need another 33 out of the last 54 on offer to beat that. That is 11 wins form the last 18 games. I suddenly felt pretty confident, then I realised the error or one of the errors in my thinking. Leicester won it with an unusually low number of points of course.
Back to the desktop calculator and indeed the drawing board. A better statistic would be the average of the past 10 years of Premier League winners. Suddenly that is more like 86.6 points, which would round up to 87. That is getting very close to 13 wins needed from the last 18 games. It can be done but it is harder and this is of course the more likely scenario. I should have got out of my little arithmetical dream world then and there but no, I was lost and swirling downward in a mathematical maelstrom.
I started looking at what it would take for the others to reach that magical 87-point figure. Well I have been extolling the virtues of the Manchester United squad lately but on closer inspection, they would need to win at least 16 of their last 18 games to get to the magic number, or average number that wins Premier League titles if you are going to be pedantic about it. It is as they say in all the best managerial interviews, ‘A big ask.’ Actually do they say that anymore? I have noticed that particular part of football speak has slowly faded from the top level of the game. New jargon has come into replace it of course, but I feel I am straying into another column for the future now, I’ll get back to you on that one.
Back to trying to figure out who is going to win the league. I will not continue to drag you down with me, as I researched the relative chances between Man City and Arsenal, while always trying to factor in the effect of European ties on the following fixtures for both sides. It got messy and that is of course the crux of the matter, it does get messy. If the Blues play the way we did against Spurs between now and the end of the season and not the way we played in the 13 games previously, then a title celebration is less likely and that is about all the certainty we can have on the matter.